Global Scenarios: The risk outlook post-invasion

The global economic outlook has deteriorated in the last quarter.

As a result, we have revised down our baseline forecast for world GDP, particularly in the very near term.

This reflects:

• The invasion of Ukraine, which we are assuming to be relatively short-lived and that global recovery remains robust by post global financial crisis standards

• Sharply higher inflation is adding to the squeeze on households’ real incomes and prompting more rapid monetary policy tightening

Our latest Global Risk Survey identified the downside risks to this baseline. Along with a possible upside from economies learning to live with endemic Covid.  The pandemic endgame.

An alternative baseline forecast has been added to illustrate how the baseline might evolve if fighting in Ukraine lasts well into 2023.

Find out more by downloading the latest Global Scenarios Service executive summary.