Europe | Rebound in tourism aids the economic recovery

Europe’s tourism sector made solid strides towards recovery this summer. In July, overnight stays reached just above 70% of 2019 levels, on track to meeting our call of 75%-85% of 2019 levels by August. Our Tourism Tracker shows that tourism is enjoying a longer-than-usual season, with activity remaining strong from August through to October.

What you will learn:

  • Domestic tourism again helped to offset the shortfall in foreign arrivals. The share of domestic overnight stays rose compared to 2020, yet couldn't quite make up for the entire deficit.
  • With air travel on the rise in Q3, we expect the balance to swing again to international travel in 2022. Overall, we estimate tourism will add 0.9ppt to our forecast of 5% EU GDP growth in 2021.
  • Even the latest data is encouraging: Online searches and bookings, which lead tourism activity, have moderated slightly from their peaks but remain elevated, as do mobility indicators.

Topics: Travel, Forecasts, Europe, Economic outlook, Tourism, Macro, GDP, Tourism recovery, Outlook, Domestic travel

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