Europe | International travel risks and domestic substitution opportunities

2020 was a year of unprecedented falls in international travel, but we expect recovery to begin in 2021 including a doubling of the level of cross-border travel across Europe. Total international nights in the region are expected to remain at least 35% below 2019 levels and similar to the levels in the region back in 2000.

What you will learn from this report:

• Under our baseline scenario we expect a faster and more stable recovery for domestic travel which will continue to account for an elevated share of total travel.
• Continued restrictions on international travel due to Covid-19 place the recovery of international travel at risk. Destinations with large domestic markets are less exposed and should be more stable in recovery.
• Countries with large outbound travel markets have an opportunity to convert some of this demand to domestic activity which could aid recovery.