China's next decade - decoupling, dual circulation or both? | China

China’s economic outlook is challenged by tensions with the US – with the current US government looking to “decouple” from China – as well as, more generally, tougher external conditions and headwinds to globalization.

However, we believe dramatic decoupling away from China remains unlikely. While we have revised down our long-term growth forecast, it remains relatively strong, with growth averaging 4.5% in 2020-2030, allowing China to overtake the US in 2030.

Download the latest analysis from our Chief Asia Economist to learn:

  • How would worsen external conditions influence China’s economic growth prospect;
  • Why we believe dramatic decoupling away from China remains unlikely;
  • China’s growth forecast for 2020 – 2030 and how would different scenarios for decoupling influence that.


Topics: Forecasts, China, Greater China, US-China relation

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