The next five weeks will be crucial in determining whether the UK and EU can achieve a free-trade agreement. We still estimate the chance of a deal being struck is 60% given the strong motivations for the UK to reach agreement.
Failure to agree a deal will mean UK exports to the EU are subject to tariffs and higher non-tariff barriers. Our modelling suggests this would hit UK growth prospects in both the short- and longer-term.
What you will learn: