China | Biden will shift but not overhaul US policy

At the start of Joe Biden’s presidency, attention has turned to the new administration’s likely impact on China via the impact on the US economy and US-China relations. We expect Joe Biden’s administration to be less aggressive and more predictable in its policymaking on China. But we don’t expect Biden will significantly change the overall US policy stance vis-à-vis China on economic issues, trade, and technology any time soon.

What you will learn:

  • Although China’s imports of US products on the phase 1 deal list were 40% lower than the target in 2020, we expect both sides will continue to implement the deal into 2021.
  • We expect the US to undertake a strategic review of Trump’s trade and investment policies that could potentially lead to conditional relaxation of some restrictions, but that will take time.
  • We expect a more forceful and comprehensive stance on noneconomic issues such as Hong Kong. And we expect US foreign policy under Biden to be more multilateral, which could make it more likely that a “common front” towards China emerges among developed countries.

 

Topics: US-China technology, Trade war, Greater China, US-China relation

Biden will shift but not overhaul US policy on China