The Q2 CPI data prompted a sharp re-evaluation of the outlook for inflation and interest rates across financial markets. We have also revised our...
Sean Langcake
Recent Posts
Australia | RBA yield target capitulation signals tighter policy
Posted by Sean Langcake on Nov 9, 2021
Australia | Scaling the great wall of trade barriers
Posted by Sean Langcake on Oct 31, 2021
Previous work identified which goods exports would be most affected by sanctions from China by constructing a ‘vulnerability score’ for each product....
Australia | Consumption set for a double-dip
Posted by Sean Langcake on Sep 17, 2021
Household consumption reached its pre-pandemic level in Q2. Goods spending has been elevated throughout the recovery, while spending on essential...
Australia | Investment recovery driving a stronger outlook
Posted by Sean Langcake on Jun 17, 2021
Our June forecasts contained a substantial upward revision to growth in 2021 and 2022. We now forecast growth of 5.3% in 2021, followed by 3.2% in...
Australia | Budget windfalls parlayed into more stimulus
Posted by Sean Langcake on May 18, 2021
Australia’s remarkably strong economic performance since the onset of the pandemic has led to a marked revision to the budget deficit this year; the...
Australia | Construction upswing a boon for domestic demand
Posted by Sean Langcake on May 6, 2021
The outlook for the construction industry was relatively benign leading into 2020, with residential construction activity in particular still...
Australia | A structural measure of the budget balance
Posted by Sean Langcake on Apr 27, 2021
The budget deficit blew out in FY20 and will widen further in FY21 due to thegovernment’s efforts to cushion the shock of the COVID-19 recession....
Australia | New spending patterns don’t change inflation outlook
Posted by Sean Langcake on Apr 19, 2021
CPI inflation rates will remain volatile in 2021, with both headline and coremeasures set to spike to the top of (or possibly above) the RBA’s target...
Australia | Withdrawal of JobKeeper a surmountable challenge
Posted by Sean Langcake on Mar 30, 2021
The JobKeeper program has been highly successful in cushioning the COVID19 shock to the labour market. Its relatively swift and generous rollout in...