Despite the economic headwinds and much increased uncertainty stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine the ECB decided to accelerate its QE exit...
Oliver Rakau
Recent Posts
Eurozone | Durable goods will turn deflationary only in 2023
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Mar 7, 2022
Up until recently there had been growing signs that the forces that lifted durable goods prices last year had begun weakening or even reversing. But...
Eurozone | ECB’s hawkish shift paves ground for a possible rate hike
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Feb 4, 2022
The February ECB meeting marked the beginning of a clear hawkish shift in the ECB’s policy outlook. Although the policy stance was left unchanged,...
Eurozone | ECB Watch – inflation risks will dominate ECB meeting
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Jan 31, 2022
Inflation prospects will again dominate the upcoming ECB meeting. We do not expect any clear policy signals or decisions given that the council made...
Eurozone | ECB tapers PEPP purchases but retains flexibility
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Dec 17, 2021
The ECB took significant steps to tighten its highly accommodative policy stance over the course of 2022 on the back of upwardly revised growth and...
Eurozone | Easing supply bottlenecks to bolster industrial rebound
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Dec 14, 2021
The easing of the severe supply-chain bottlenecks that brought the eurozone’s industrial recovery to a standstill in early 2021 will be gradual, with...
Eurozone | ECB will aim to retain optionality given high uncertainty
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Dec 13, 2021
It appears to be a forgone conclusion that the ECB council will agree to end its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) at its upcoming...
Germany | New coalition aims to modernize with limited fiscal boost
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Nov 25, 2021
The SPD, FDP and Green party have struck a deal to form the next German government, which should be in power by early-December. A first reading of...
Eurozone | Low-flation risks to come back to the fore in late-2022
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Nov 18, 2021
We see little evidence that the outlook for underlying inflation in the eurozone is much changed from a few months ago. In fact, there’s a high...
Eurozone | ECB Watch – A controversial debate on inflation looms
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Oct 26, 2021
We don’t expect any policy changes to emerge from the October ECB meeting as key policy decisions are closely tied to updated macroeconomic...