A glance at recent headlines in the UK could leave the reader feeling beleaguered. An economic recovery slowing to a crawl, the prospect of a surge...
Martin Beck
Recent Posts
UK | MPC predicts larger but still brief inflation burst
Posted by Martin Beck on Jun 29, 2021
The MPC now thinks CPI inflation could exceed 3% this year, with the risk of an even bigger overshoot of the BoE’s 2% target. However, the majority...
UK | The recovery rolls on
Posted by Martin Beck on Jun 7, 2021
May’s PMIs delivered a set of record, or near-record, high readings. Whileactivity may not be quite as heated as the surveys suggest, all the...
UK | Why strong pay growth isn’t what it seems
Posted by Martin Beck on May 21, 2021
UK wages have recently grown at a pace not seen for over a decade. But rather than a sign of nascent inflationary pressure, changes in the makeup of...
UK | The economy reveals a resilient base for recovery
Posted by Martin Beck on May 14, 2021
While the economy shrunk in Q1, the fall was smaller than feared. And the quarter ended with evidence of activity building momentum even before a...
UK | Brighter outlook raises risks of an earlier rate lift-off
Posted by Martin Beck on May 7, 2021
At May’s MPC meeting the committee revised up its forecast for GDP growth in 2021 significantly and laid out its plans to slow the pace of asset...
UK | More signs of an economy healing
Posted by Martin Beck on Apr 30, 2021
Recent survey and high-frequency data have boosted hopes that the economy is in the early stages of a strong rebound as lockdown ends. Positively,...
UK | Positive news points to MPC sticking with no change
Posted by Martin Beck on Apr 29, 2021
Reflecting recent positive developments, we think the MPC will vote unanimously to keep policy on hold in its May meeting. It will likely also pushup...
UK | The economics of Scottish independence
Posted by Martin Beck on Apr 27, 2021
A win for pro-independence parties at Scottish elections on May 6 will put Scotland’s exit from the UK back on the political agenda. But in our view,...
UK | The economy takes a small step to recovery
Posted by Martin Beck on Apr 19, 2021
Although February saw GDP make only a modest advance in exiting a Covidshaped hole, the month’s 0.4% m/m rise in output should herald the start of an...