Latin America’s economy enters the new year on weakened footing. Our 2022 themes revolve around the inherent struggle between supporting a slowing...
Marcos Casarin
Recent Posts
LATAM | Five themes that will shape the region’s outlook in 2022
Posted by Marcos Casarin on Sep 21, 2021
We expect Latin America to return to low trend growth in 2022, as policysupport is withdrawn and the easy gains from the reopening fade. LatAm’s...
Latin America | Institutional erosion a hidden risk in event of QE tapering
Posted by Marcos Casarin on Aug 27, 2021
While we don’t expect the looming announcement of QE tapering by the US Fed to trigger a sharp rise in US yields a la 2013’s ‘taper tantrum’, it is...
LATAM | Recovery Tracker falls after setbacks in Brazil and Chile
Posted by Marcos Casarin on Jun 28, 2021
Our Latin America Recovery Tracker (LART) fell slightly (-0.7pts) during the week ending June 18, following two consecutive weekly gains. Setbacks in...
LATAM | Inflation dynamics have Mexico set to hike rates next
Posted by Marcos Casarin on May 11, 2021
Our thorough analysis of inflation risks shows that Mexico should be the first to join Brazil in the rate-hiking club in 2021. With three in four...
LATAM | Why consensus may be underestimating 2021 growth
Posted by Marcos Casarin on Mar 19, 2021
Even factoring in the relatively high probability (45%) of negative scenarios, our 2021 growth forecasts remain significantly above consensus. We...
LATAM | Key themes 2021: Differentiating the losers and winners
Posted by Marcos Casarin on Dec 14, 2020
The 2020 pandemic exacerbated Latin America’s main weaknesses – weak trend growth and rising public debts - opening the door for populism to return...