We see China’s economy entering 2022 with weaker growth. Our forecast has GDP growth dipping to 3.6% y/y in Q4 2021. And we expect 5.4% GDP growth in...
Louis Kuijs
Recent Posts
China | Slowdown on weak demand rather than supply issues
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Nov 3, 2021
China's official manufacturing PMI fell 0.4 points to 49.2 in October, while the non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.4, from 53.2 in September. High...
China | Growth outlook weakens, despite expected policy easing
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Oct 8, 2021
We’ve cut our China growth forecast for Q4 to 3.6% y/y from 5%, and for 2022 to 5.4% from 5.8%. This is despite our expectation of a shift in...
APAC | Duelling currencies – the rise of the renminbi in Asia forex
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Sep 24, 2021
The role of the RMB is greatest where China is a major destination for manufacturing exports, suggesting that the degree of trade integration with...
China | The motivations and implications of ‘common prosperity’
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Sep 1, 2021
The sudden recent wave of regulatory tightening hitting China’s internet companies has shaken investor confidence. Markets were badly prepared; they...
China | No signs yet of a decoupling from the rest of the world
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Aug 18, 2021
We recently concluded that, judging by China’s export performance in the last two years, there is little evidence so far that developed countries are...
APAC | Limited vaccination holds back recoveries
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Jul 13, 2021
A string of new Covid-19 outbreaks is weighing on the APAC region’s economic recovery. Among Asia’s developed economies, the case load is low...
APAC | Neutral rates will vary but generally be modest
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Jun 8, 2021
Inflation is on the rise in Asia following hefty commodity price increases, and it may in some economies even increase above central bank targets....
China | We’re still largely sanguine on price pressures
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Jun 3, 2021
Large price increases for commodities and China’s heavy industry output continue to worry businesses, markets, and policymakers. If these price...
APAC | How households unleash their savings is key to growth
Posted by Louis Kuijs on May 26, 2021
A great uncertainty for the growth outlook is the extent to which households will spend the additional savings they’ve accumulated once normal...