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We have modelled a plausible downside scenario in which the fighting in Ukraine lasts well into 2023, the west imposes further sanctions and Russia...
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The impact of a “limited” incursion by Russia into Ukraine would deal an unwelcome blow to the European economy via higher inflation squeezing real...
After bouncing back from the pandemic in 2021, global real estate will likely have another strong year in 2022 – we expect returns of 8%. Despite...
The received wisdom that real estate is a good inflation hedge is an oversimplification. This is revealed by our two plausible high inflation...
Despite Covid cases rising globally, upside risks to our already relatively optimistic baseline are material. The main risk stems from the estimated...
Global bond yields have risen sharply over recent weeks to become more in line with fair value. Previous episodes have demonstrated that what starts...
The current market sell-off should be contained with a strong verbal reiteration of existing forward guidance from central bankers in the coming...
News of an effective potential vaccine is a significant boost in the fight against Coronavirus, but it doesn’t yet warrant an upgrade to our baseline...
The fallout from the pandemic will cement the trend of safe haven bond yields remaining low over the next five years. Any rises will be gradual and...
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