Andrew Goodwin

Recent Posts

Alongside its decision to raise rates by 25bps to 0.5%, the MPC today sent an unmistakeably hawkish message, and we now expect further 25bp hikes in...

After a decade of consistently strong growth, UK labour supply has slumped since the onset of the pandemic and we expect only a partial recovery this...

The lifting of Covid restrictions on January 27 adds to hopes that the worst of the pandemic is in the past and should boost consumer sentiment. But...

Whether or not the MPC raises Bank Rate in February is close to a 50:50 call. We marginally favour a hike because Omicron’s economic damage appears...

Though the scale of December’s fall in retail sales came as a nasty surprise, it was not simply an Omicron story. We still think the Omicron hit to...

A strong outturn for November took the output measure of GDP above its pre-pandemic peak. Given GDP is likely to have fallen in December, the...

The hit to UK GDP from Omicron is likely to be much smaller than previous Covid waves and the economy will bounce back quickly after a 0.6% m/m drop...

That movements in consumer credit and households’ savings in Novemberreturned to levels more akin to pre-Covid norms offered further indication that...

Though the government has opted to defer a decision on introducing further restrictions until after Christmas, it seems likely that a mix of greater...

Despite the uncertainty caused by the surge in Omicron cases, the BoE raised interest rates to 0.25% this week. This marks a clear change of tack,...