Andrew Goodwin

Recent Posts

A strong outturn for November took the output measure of GDP above its pre-pandemic peak. Given GDP is likely to have fallen in December, the...

The hit to UK GDP from Omicron is likely to be much smaller than previous Covid waves and the economy will bounce back quickly after a 0.6% m/m...

That movements in consumer credit and households’ savings in Novemberreturned to levels more akin to pre-Covid norms offered further indication...

Though the government has opted to defer a decision on introducing further restrictions until after Christmas, it seems likely that a mix of...

Despite the uncertainty caused by the surge in Omicron cases, the BoE raised interest rates to 0.25% this week. This marks a clear change of tack,...

Even though Omicron is casting a huge shadow over the UK economy, the BoE today raised Bank Rate to 0.25% signalling a clear change of tack....

We think the government’s shift to its Plan B Covid strategy is unlikely to have a significant impact on output. The emergence of Omicron may...

A December rate hike would require the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to be satisfied that the end of the furlough scheme was benign and that the...

After enduring one of the deepest downturns in 2020, the UK has enjoyed one of the strongest rebounds in 2021. The ‘easy’ gains from reopening are...

Ordinarily, the strength of recent survey evidence would have tilted the balance further toward a rise in Bank Rate next month. But the discovery...