Andrew Goodwin

Recent Posts

Construction and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing and agriculture were the only UK sectors to suffer significant labour shortages in July,...

The latest money and credit data suggested caution on the part of consumers. Unsecured lending flatlined in July and households’ savings...

Input shortages were the key theme of this week’s business surveys. Manufacturers continue to struggle with global component shortages, while...

Retail sales fell sharply in July, but we don’t see this as a reason to turn bearish on the consumer outlook. The slide was partly due to one-off...

July’s fall in inflation is likely to represent only brief respite for consumers. After a larger than expected rise in the energy price cap, we...

A decent rise in GDP in Q2 confirmed hopes that the relaxation of Covidrestrictions would trigger a strong response from the economy. And the...

Another upside inflation surprise points to the CPI measure peaking much higher than we previously thought. But June’s rise in prices did little...

The government’s announcement that most of the remaining Covid restrictions are likely to be removed on July 19 has bolstered our confidence in...

We now expect the scarring effect from the pandemic on the supply-side of the UK’s economy to be much more limited – a 1% permanent cut to GDP...

Though the budget deficit remains very high, monthly borrowing totals haveconsistently undershot the OBR’s forecasts. We expect this to continue...