Andrew Goodwin

Recent Posts

Retail sales surged in March, even though many physical stores remained closed, while the reopening of non-essential stores and outdoor...

March’s pickup in inflation will mark the beginning of a sharp rise over the next few months, as sizeable base effects combine with higher fuel...

With the government confirming that non-essential retailers and outdoor hospitality will reopen in England on Monday, our forecast of a strong...

This week marked a year since the first lockdown was introduced. Over thatperiod consumers and firms have increasingly adapted to life under...

High-frequency data indicate a broad strengthening in activity since mid February. For Q1, we expect GDP will fall by just 2% q/q, a fraction of...

The combined impact of Brexit and the coronavirus pandemic means we now expect UK growth to average just 1.2% a year in the 2020s. The damage from...

The first GDP estimate for 2020 as a whole confirmed the largest fall in output for more than 300 years. But a change in approach for measuring...

We expect CPI inflation in the UK will accelerate sharply during 2021, breaching the BoE’s 2% target by autumn. But the pickup will be largely due...

The introduction of a second lockdown will cause GDP to drop sharply in November, but we expect it will be less economically damaging than the...

Negotiations on a UK-EU free-trade agreement have continued to make frustratingly slow progress and this week has seen both sides ratchet up the...