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The risk of a shift to a higher inflation regime in advanced economies has risen in the last six months, but markets may be under-pricing the risk in...
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While the potential collapse of Chinese property firm Evergrande matters, it doesn’t signal a ‘Lehman moment’ that might spark global financial...
Concerns have risen about financial market risks, centring around elevated asset valuations and high corporate debt. A lack of corporate distress and...
Warnings that the consumer recovery in advanced economies may be faltering look premature. While there are near-term downside risks due to the rise...
Rapid house price rises are feeding into a broader asset price boom that’s the strongest in decades and also unusually synchronised across assets....
Inflation in advanced economies is set to rise this year to the highest rate in a decade. This has sparked fears of a shift to a high inflation...
World goods trade is staging an impressive recovery. It has now returned to its pre-pandemic trend, and our forecasts see it expanding by 10.5% this...
Could fiscal stimulus lead to economic overheating? Our assessment suggests that while that’s a risk, it’s not a foregone conclusion, even with large...
Emerging market currencies tend to move with the economic cycle. Consequently, after losing ground in 2020, they have recently shown signs of...
Market nervousness about inflation has increased in recent weeks, in part due to strong monetary growth in the major economies. While we still think...
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