Africa watchlist 2021

Our Africa watchlist for 2021 includes a look at why Covid-19 will remain a concern throughout 2021 and why the commencement of AfCTFA will have little impact on the ground this year. We also show how the continent’s growth hotspot is moving west and discuss some potential 2021 wildcards: political upheaval in Nigeria and a debt default by either Kenya, Ghana or Ethiopia.

What you will learn:

  • Dependence on the WHO’s Covax programme means that herd immunity will not be reached across Africa this year.
  • AfCFTA has officially commenced, but tangible benefits, from a goods trade perspective, will only materialise within a decade. We argue that the free flow of services holds the biggest opportunities over the medium term.
  • Our wildcard calls include the return of political instability in Nigeria and another major debt default.

Topics: Economic outlook, Global trade, Coronavirus, Financial risks, Africa

Africa Research Briefing   Watchlist 2021_Page_1