A vaccine is a major step, but policy response is also key | Global

Some economists have been quick to upgrade their GDP forecasts for next year in response to the news that the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine appears highly effective.

While this development undoubtedly marks a big step forward, for now, we are sceptical that this will provide a meaningful boost to our slightly above consensus forecast for global GDP growth in 2021.

Download this piece to find out:

• The impact of the latest vaccine developments on the existing assumptions in our baseline forecast. 
• How expectations for a vaccine could trigger new shifts in spending patterns.
• How rollout of a vaccine program could trigger premature fiscal tightening.