US | A sobering health and economic outlook for Biden

Joe Biden will become the 46th president of the United States. But with Republicans likely to retain control of the Senate, Biden will find enacting his major tax and spending proposals difficult. Increased policy certainty, trade multilateralism, and a pro-immigration stance should generally benefit the economy, but they’re unlikely to drastically change the growth trajectory.

In this report, you will learn:

• As the health situation rapidly worsens and economic momentum slows, we forecast GDP growth averaging 3.6% in 2021, compared with last month’s forecast of 3.7%. 
• We expect President-elect Biden will attempt to put his stamp on policy through executive orders and lobbying efforts with moderate Republicans to pass some elements of his agenda. 
• The Fed reaffirmed its dovish forward guidance in its latest policy statement. We believe the fed funds rate will remain at the effective lower bound at least through mid-2024 while QE will increase in pace and duration.