Africa Watchlist 2022

Uneven economic recovery, divergence in vaccination rates and intensifying fiscal pressures have been central themes affecting the African economic and political landscape this year. In this Research Briefing we take a closer look at the potential key themes for Africa in 2022. These include the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia, French withdrawal from West Africa, the prospect of an electricity blackout in South Africa, and some currency surprises in Egypt and Zambia.

What you will learn:

  • South African national demand for electricity is nearly permanently being met by expensive peak diesel generators, which should technically only be used during peak demand periods. The electric grid is vulnerable and will remain so in coming years.
  • A sudden shift in emerging market sentiment could see capital inflows reverse, which would pose a serious problem for foreign reserves and the Egyptian pound’s value. In turn, there are a number of potential upside surprises that could benefit the Zambian kwacha.
  • If Tigray declares independence from Ethiopia, Ethiopia will become a more difficult place to do business as companies trading nationally see their operations disrupted, reputational risk increases and government puts its liberalisation plans on hold.

Topics: Africa, Currency, France, Electricity, Mali, Ethiopia

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