Forward Thinking

Latest news and innovations from Oxford Economics

Pinning down world flashpoints to protect against nasty surprises

Posted by Oxford Economics on Jan 3, 2018 9:10:39 AM

How our EPRE risk tool helps keep users on their guard in a volatile world

The upsets and surprises of the past 12 months show all too clearly how, in an ever more unpredictable world, risk can catch out the unwary. And, as we begin 2018, nowhere is this more apparent than in the realms of economic and political risk.

As one of the world’s foremost independent economic forecasters, Oxford Economics has collaborated in a joint venture with Control Risks, the global specialist in political and security risks, to create a unique tool for organisations to weigh-up the uncertainties lurking in every corner of a volatile globe.

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Topics: Risk, Volatility, Economic forecasting, Economic risk, Political risk, Economic uncertainty, Risk assessment, Risk evaluation

The new ‘Great Stability’ conundrum for the world economy

Posted by Oxford Economics on Dec 1, 2017 10:10:12 AM

It is plausible that recent low volatility is the new and persistent norm, with economic surprises muted and downside risks in decline.

As a tempestuous year in world politics comes to an unnerving close, in economics the nervousness flows from an almost entirely and strangely opposite cause. 2017 ends as the year of the risk conundrum.

Even as the advent of the Trump Administration, the UK’s great Brexit gamble, and the rise of populism and separatist tendencies in parts of Europe have raised the global political stakes, in the global economy both macro and market volatility have recently plummeted. Conditions, in fact, appear more stable than during the period of the Nineties and early 2000s, which itself became known as the ‘Great Stability.

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Topics: Risk, Global economics, Great Stability

Global scenarios service — Trump towers over the global economy

Posted by Oxford Economics on Jan 10, 2017 4:34:47 PM

The global economic outlook has shifted markedly in the three months since our last report. While our baseline forecast has changed only modestly, upside risks to growth have increased significantly and we no longer judge risks to be skewed to the downside. As highlighted in the latest Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey, the greatest source of risk is the US policy stance once President-elect Trump takes office.

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Topics: Risk, Global economics, Scenarios

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