Forward Thinking

Latest news and innovations from Oxford Economics

Combatting illicit trade – consumer motivations and stakeholder perspectives

Posted by Thought Leadership on Jul 3, 2018 9:34:12 AM

Illicit trade is a persistent and growing threat, as technology, the global economy and e-commerce open new opportunities for counterfeit products to infiltrate supply chains and provide consumers with illicit products. Many understand the risks—that illicit trade can cause serious public health issues, and that the proceeds from illicit sales fund other criminal activities. Others view some form of illicit trade as the soft underbelly of the global economy— the price to be paid for frictionless trade.

A new study from Oxford Economics seeks to understand this evolving issue better—specifically, the attitudes and behaviours of those that influence the demand and the supply for illicit goods, so that illicit trade can be contained. We surveyed more than 37,000 consumers, across 37 European countries, buying five products; cigarettes and tobacco, alcoholic drinks, films, music and games, clothing and accessories and medicines.

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Topics: Illicit Trade, Global trade, Trade, Public policy and regulations, Global economy, Thought leadership

Forecasting criminal Legal Aid expenditure: 2017 update

Posted by Economic Impact on Feb 27, 2017 9:00:00 AM

The Law Society asked Oxford Economics to refresh its 2014 study to produce forecasts of criminal Legal Aid expenditure under alternative scenarios. A number of factors could affect Legal Aid expenditure over the next five years, including the volume of Legal Aid claims, the impact of policy changes, and the composition of the caseload. We produce a baseline forecast which assumes that crime and prosecution rates remain unchanged in future years, and compare this to alternative forecasts which allow crime and prosecution rates to evolve in line with recent trends. Under both alternative scenarios, expenditure falls—by almost £20 million under the first scenario and by £111 million in the second. We have also investigated what could happen to criminal Legal Aid expenditure if recent government reforms prove effective in reducing the time taken (and therefore costs) per case. Assuming a related cost saving of 2.5-5 percent, this could further reduce criminal Legal Aid expenditure in 2021/22 by between £15 million and £34 million, under the various scenarios.

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Topics: Economic impact, Business and economic outlook, Public policy and regulations, Government and education, Professional and business services

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