Forward Thinking

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Bad news from the black stuff as oil surges – but keep calm

Posted by Oxford Economics on Jun 11, 2018 4:07:18 PM

Modern economic history since the 1970s is littered with episodes of oil shocks, with surging crude prices triggering global recessions. With the cost of benchmark Brent crude having surged by 62% over the past year or so, to levels around $77 a barrel, anxieties are mounting over the implications. So just how serious is the bad news from the black stuff?

Oxford Economics recently raised our baseline forecast for oil to $85 a barrel in the second half of this year. And oil price spikes remain one of the fastest and most potent redistributors of income, wealth and capital that the global economy can throw up.

Yet, in spite of this, we remain relatively sanguine over the fallout from this episode of sharply higher oil prices, and we see a series of reasons to be less pessimistic this time around.

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Topics: crude oil prices, oil shocks, monetary policy, Global economics, global prospects, Emerging markets, Inflation, Labour markets, wages, Economic prospects

China’s consumers shake the (retail) world

Posted by Oxford Economics on Feb 22, 2018 2:18:15 PM

Chinese consumer market to overtake America’s by 2034

“Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.” The cautionary words of Napoleon have echoed ever more powerfully as China’s economic and political power has burgeoned over recent decades.

And with the seismic impact of the world’s most populous nation set to resonate ever more strongly than ever in coming years, in few areas of life will those reverberations be felt more than in the rise of China’s consumers as a global force.

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Topics: Consumption, China, Consumer spending, Retail, Luxury goods, Online retail, Travel, Tourism, Healthcare services, Asia, Household wealth, Living standards, Emerging markets

Understanding the role of mobile technology in economic growth

Posted by Economic Impact on Mar 3, 2017 12:08:59 PM

Recent years have seen startling growth in the reach of mobile technology. Such growth has been truly ‘global’ with vast investment in mobile infrastructure, supporting increased network coverage across emerging markets in all six continents. The impact of this extends far beyond convenience and consumer choice. Mobile internet technologies are transforming product and labour markets the world over. They are helping to propel ideas, connect businesses and customers and match workers to opportunities.

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Topics: Technology, Economic impact, Business and economic outlook, Emerging markets, Global economics

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