Forward Thinking

The UK launched its Industrial Strategy yesterday, seeking to tackle the UK’s pervasive slow productivity growth. Developing technical skills is one of the key recommendations, through increasing teaching of STEM subjects, enhanced Computer Science education and “T levels,” the establishment of a National Centre for Computing Education and an Institute for Coding.  Coincidentally, last week BT and Accenture launched their study “Tech know-how: The new way to get ahead for the next generation.” Though they both seem on the same page in promoting tackling technology skills shortages, there are important differences in emphasis.

Recent years have seen startling growth in the reach of mobile technology. Such growth has been truly ‘global’ with vast investment in mobile infrastructure, supporting increased network coverage across emerging markets in all six continents. The impact of this extends far beyond convenience and consumer choice. Mobile internet technologies are transforming product and labour markets the world over. They are helping to propel ideas, connect businesses and customers and match workers to opportunities.

The Law Society asked Oxford Economics to refresh its 2014 study to produce forecasts of criminal Legal Aid expenditure under alternative scenarios. A number of factors could affect Legal Aid expenditure over the next five years, including the volume of Legal Aid claims, the impact of policy changes, and the composition of the caseload. We produce a baseline forecast which assumes that crime and prosecution rates remain unchanged in future years, and compare this to alternative forecasts which allow crime and prosecution rates to evolve in line with recent trends. Under both alternative scenarios, expenditure falls—by almost £20 million under the first scenario and by £111 million in the second. We have also investigated what could happen to criminal Legal Aid expenditure if recent government reforms prove effective in reducing the time taken (and therefore costs) per case. Assuming a related cost saving of 2.5-5 percent, this could further reduce criminal Legal Aid expenditure in 2021/22 by between £15 million and £34 million, under the various scenarios.

Oxford Economics were appointed by the Gatwick Growth Board (GGB) to provide an independent assessment of Gatwick Airport's local, regional and national impact. The GGB was established in 2016 to examine the economic and social consequences of Gatwick Airport’s future plans for growth and expansion.

Economic impact assessments provide a clear insight into how a firms operations and interactions with suppliers generates economic activity. They capture how supply chains spread through an economy, enabling us to quantify a firm’s footprint.

Yet typically they only consider a firm’s operations and spending in one country. For some companies this may be ideal: for instance if they have a single location and spend little with suppliers in other economies. But for globally integrated businesses, such analysis does not capture the impact on a local economy in its entirety.

Traditionally a firm’s operations and suppliers outside of the main country of analysis, as well as trade impact they have on an economy, have been beyond the capacity of standard impact models. Such activities are known as ‘leakage’ from the analysis. These limitations have meant conventional impact studies inevitably understate a global company’s national economic contribution, although they still quantify important effects.

 By 2015, there were more than 1.6 billion people in the world who were part of the 50-plus cohort. By 2050, this number is projected to double to nearly 3.2 billion people.

Throughout the world the growth of this age group is having a transformative impact, economically and socially. The US alone is home to 111 million in the 50-plus cohort; they represent a powerful force that is driving economic growth and value. This is what AARP has branded the Longevity Economy, representing the sum of all economic activity driven by the needs of Americans aged 50 and older, and includes both products and services they purchase directly and the further economic activity this spending generates.

The difference it makes is substantial. In the first Longevity Economy report released in 2013 by AARP and Oxford Economics, the Longevity Economy fostered $7.1 trillion in annual economic activity. This figure has now been revised up to $7.6 trillion in the latest report. The outsized contribution reflects the changing demographics, wealth, and spending patterns of the 50-plus population as the lifespan increases and the Longevity Economy becomes more pervasive and central to economic and social policies.