Business optimism over global outlook strongest for two years – OE survey

Posted by Oxford Economics on Feb 7, 2018 8:15:07 PM

Companies’ spirits boosted by buoyant world trade and US fiscal stimulus measures as fears over North Korea tensions and China slowdown retreat

Businesses are increasingly positive about prospects for the world economy, with optimism over the global outlook at its strongest for two years, according to Oxford Economics’ latest survey of global risk perceptions among clients and business contacts, including some of the world’s largest companies.

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Topics: Trump, Global economics, China, Global surveys, Business and economic outlook, North Korea, Protectionism, China slowdown, Global trade, US tax cuts, Fiscal stimulus

Four reasons why 2018 will be the economy’s best post-crisis year

Posted by Oxford Economics on Dec 7, 2017 11:15:23 AM
  We head into 2018 in a fairly optimistic mood. The current global economic upswing is more broadly based than any other since the global financial crisis, and – unusually, by recent standards –  the new year approaches without any major crisis looming.

In our latest forecasts, we see world GDP growth accelerating from 2.9% this year to 3.2% in 2018. This would mark the best year for the world economy since the rebound from the global financial crisis began.

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Topics: Global economics, Forecasts, Business and economic outlook

Europe may be poised for a golden decade of economic expansion

Posted by Oxford Economics on Nov 20, 2017 12:14:14 PM

Lost amid Europe’s political drama and recurrent euro doomsday scenarios is the fact that the Eurozone economy has a business cycle that is alive and well.

Our analysis suggests there is plenty of room left in the current expansionary cycle, which could see the single currency area enjoy a golden decade of economic growth. 

More than four years into the current upturn, most indicators signal the Eurozone economy is still somewhere around mid-cycle, suggesting that – absent an unexpected shock – we should see several more years of sustained expansion. 

One reason is that the amount of economic slack in the Eurozone countries –  the size of the “output gap” before an economy hits a ‘speed limit’ above which growth comes with inflation – may be larger than commonly accepted. 

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Topics: Global Economic Model, Business and economic outlook, Europe, Eurozone, Euroboom, ECB, Draghi

Over the cliff? No deal Brexit would cut UK growth by 1 point a year

Posted by Oxford Economics on Nov 14, 2017 3:50:20 PM

Economy would be 2% smaller than otherwise expected by end of 2020 - equivalent to a £16bn hit to GDP

With Theresa May’s UK Government struggling to make progress in ‘Brexit’ negotiations with the EU and strike a deal for Britain to leave the bloc, Oxford Economics analysed the potential impact of the talks collapsing with no agreement.

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Topics: Brexit, Global economics, Business and economic outlook, Europe

Fear of Trump policy errors, N Korea tensions keep businesses fearing a slowdown

Posted by Oxford Economics on Nov 10, 2017 8:30:00 AM

Businesses remain fearful over risks of major economic upsets that could trigger a global slowdown - despite the present upswing in world growth, according to our latest quarterly survey of global corporate risk perceptions.  Business fears over tensions between the US and North Korean and over potential US policy errors emanating from the Trump Administration have persisted since the summer, even as world growth has strengthened.

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Topics: Trump, Global economics, Global surveys, Business and economic outlook, North Korea, Populism

Early death of the internal combustion engine greatly exaggerated

Posted by Oxford Economics on Nov 1, 2017 9:54:38 AM

What will the highways of the world look like in five or 10 years’ time and what will this mean for the future of the automotive industry, not to mention the thousands of businesses in multiple industry sectors that supply them? For many, the hubbub in the media and among industry observers over electric vehicles drives an image in our imaginations of a world humming quietly to the sound of electric cars whizzing us happily to our destinations. It is a vision of more efficient journeys, clean air and a quieter environment.

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Topics: Global economics, Innovation, R&D, and science, Business and economic outlook, Manufacturing, Electric vehicles, Electric cars, E-mobility, Auto and motor vehicles

How Finance Leadership Pays Off

Posted by Thought Leadership on Oct 18, 2017 1:14:50 PM
The demands of the global and digital economy have multiplied the finance function’s core responsibilities. At the same time, CFOs are expected to partner with their C-suite colleagues to shape long-term business strategy. When finance chiefs do their jobs well, they make a powerful impact, not only within their own department but also on their company’s overall performance—amplifying their importance to the enterprise.

The demands of the global and digital economy have multiplied the finance function’s core responsibilities. At the same time, CFOs are expected to partner with their C-suite colleagues to shape long-term business strategy. When finance chiefs do their jobs well, they make a powerful impact, not only within their own department but also on their company’s overall performance—amplifying their importance to the enterprise.

But surprisingly few CFOs give themselves high marks for effectiveness. Most see room for improvement in financial planning and analysis, a critical process for driving growth, and even in risk and compliance. What do the high-performing minority—the Finance Leaders—do differently from the rest of the pack?

We asked 1,500 CFOs and other senior executives around the world about their goals and challenges. Then we identified six traits that make a Finance Leader, including excellence in core finance activities and strong influence over strategy. Only 11.5% of our survey respondents, qualified as Leaders. Yet our results show these six practices boost business performance and efficiency, as well as governance, risk, and compliance (GRC) effectiveness across the company.

 

Read the full report.

 

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Topics: Technology, Thought leadership, Business and economic outlook, Professional and business services, Video

Understanding the role of mobile technology in economic growth

Posted by Economic Impact on Mar 3, 2017 12:08:59 PM

Recent years have seen startling growth in the reach of mobile technology. Such growth has been truly ‘global’ with vast investment in mobile infrastructure, supporting increased network coverage across emerging markets in all six continents. The impact of this extends far beyond convenience and consumer choice. Mobile internet technologies are transforming product and labour markets the world over. They are helping to propel ideas, connect businesses and customers and match workers to opportunities.

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Topics: Economic impact, Technology, Global economics, Business and economic outlook, Emerging markets

Forecasting criminal Legal Aid expenditure: 2017 update

Posted by Economic Impact on Feb 27, 2017 9:00:00 AM

The Law Society asked Oxford Economics to refresh its 2014 study to produce forecasts of criminal Legal Aid expenditure under alternative scenarios. A number of factors could affect Legal Aid expenditure over the next five years, including the volume of Legal Aid claims, the impact of policy changes, and the composition of the caseload. We produce a baseline forecast which assumes that crime and prosecution rates remain unchanged in future years, and compare this to alternative forecasts which allow crime and prosecution rates to evolve in line with recent trends. Under both alternative scenarios, expenditure falls—by almost £20 million under the first scenario and by £111 million in the second. We have also investigated what could happen to criminal Legal Aid expenditure if recent government reforms prove effective in reducing the time taken (and therefore costs) per case. Assuming a related cost saving of 2.5-5 percent, this could further reduce criminal Legal Aid expenditure in 2021/22 by between £15 million and £34 million, under the various scenarios.

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Topics: Economic impact, Business and economic outlook, Public policy and regulations, Government and education, Professional and business services

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