Our US Recovery Tracker rose only 0.2ppts to 81.3 in the week ended Sept 11. Again fostering much of the gain was an improving public health situation, while a rise in employment and financial conditions was partially offset by a relapse in mobility, demand, and production.
Despite relatively encouraging news on the health front, the deterioration in demand and mobility post-Labor Day and ongoing softness in production are concerning. With colder weather arriving and the school year starting, restaurant and hotel activity is once again slowing. And while consumers are using their savings from unemployment payments and one-time checks to finance their outlays, the situation isn’t sustainable over time without stronger gains in employment.