We have revised down our global GDP growth forecast for 2021 further to 5.2% from 5.4%. The new forecast is over 1ppt lower than we anticipated in June. Some of the change reflects revisions to GDP in 2020, but we are also more conservative about the quarterly rate of growth in 2021.
The downward revisions to quarter-on-quarter growth next year partly reflect our expectation that social distancing and other measures to curb the spread of Covid-19 are likely to be reversed more slowly. While this will constrain activity, we envisage growth will still be strong by recent historical standards, in part due to continued strong policy support.
Growth rates across economies in 2021 are likely to vary significantly. China may already have reversed its GDP losses quickly, but its underlying pace of growth next year looks set to be weaker than many emerging market and advanced economies.