The impact of coronavirus on the global economy has prompted recent revisions to our baseline forecast, which now envisages a 2.8% contraction in global GDP for 2020.
We think the risks around our baseline forecast are now more balanced than previously. But such is the uncertainty over the outlook that we are continuing to update our downside simulations to show how, under plausible assumptions, the outlook could materially worsen.
Our updated downside scenario assumes lockdowns become even more widespread and persist into Q3, and the subsequent recovery is slower. We estimate this would lead to global growth contracting by around 8% in 2020.