Coronavirus Watch: Optimism surge proves short lived

Posted by Ben May on Jan 12, 2021 9:25:09 AM

The sense of optimism at the prospect of widespread vaccinations in 2021 has been deflated by the discovery of more transmissible forms of...

We expect the introduction of a third lockdown to cause GDP to fall more than 4% q/q in Q1.

According to the latest high-frequency data the economic respite offered by the lifting of the England wide lockdown in November has proved...

The prospect of large shares of some economies’ populations being vaccinated in the first half of 2021, supporting a return to some degree of...

Coronavirus Watch: Three key vaccine uncertainties

Posted by Ben May on Dec 15, 2020 10:34:54 AM

Over the past month, we have revised up our global GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 5.2% from 4.9%. We also see a more favourable balance of risks...

Vaccine optimism reduces EM risks

Posted by Maya Senussi on Dec 14, 2020 11:45:42 AM

The positive developments on Covid-19 vaccines are broadly in line with our baseline forecast for emerging markets – we expect a noticeable impact...

Coronavirus Watch: Industry’s strength to endure

Posted by Ben May on Dec 9, 2020 10:15:18 AM

The latest PMI data suggest that the activity hit from lockdowns and tighter restrictions in November won’t be sufficient to prompt another...