The sense of optimism at the prospect of widespread vaccinations in 2021 has been deflated by the discovery of more transmissible forms of...
New lockdown set to push UK back into recession
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Jan 11, 2021 9:56:45 AM
We expect the introduction of a third lockdown to cause GDP to fall more than 4% q/q in Q1.
Tougher restrictions take a toll on high frequency data
Posted by Martin Beck on Jan 11, 2021 9:46:16 AM
According to the latest high-frequency data the economic respite offered by the lifting of the England wide lockdown in November has proved...
Coronavirus Watch: Inflation – this time isn’t different
Posted by Ben May on Jan 5, 2021 10:20:47 AM
The prospect of large shares of some economies’ populations being vaccinated in the first half of 2021, supporting a return to some degree of...
Coronavirus Watch: Three key vaccine uncertainties
Posted by Ben May on Dec 15, 2020 10:34:54 AM
Over the past month, we have revised up our global GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 5.2% from 4.9%. We also see a more favourable balance of risks...
Vaccine optimism reduces EM risks
Posted by Maya Senussi on Dec 14, 2020 11:45:42 AM
The positive developments on Covid-19 vaccines are broadly in line with our baseline forecast for emerging markets – we expect a noticeable impact...
Coronavirus Watch: Industry’s strength to endure
Posted by Ben May on Dec 9, 2020 10:15:18 AM
The latest PMI data suggest that the activity hit from lockdowns and tighter restrictions in November won’t be sufficient to prompt another...