US-China trade ties will remain frayed for some time

The coronavirus crisis makes it even less likely that China will achieve its trade deal targets for US export purchases. This could further strain US-China relations, which have already sharply deteriorated.

The problem is, even if Trump could continue imposing tariff threats or making new threats, this could become a double-edged sword.

Using Oxford Economics' Global Economic Model, we estimate that if President Donald Trump imposed all previous tariff threats and markets responded adversely, this could cut 1.2ppts off the recovery in US GDP growth in 2021 and trade activity could see its recovery delayed by almost two years.

So what's next for US-China trades?

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In our latest research briefing, we dive into below issues against the backdrop of US presidential election:

  • Impact of previous tariffs on US imports from China
  • The cost to US GDP growth from imposing all previously threatened tariffs under different scenarios
  • Trump and Biden's stance on US-China trades, and long-term prospects for US-China tension. 

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Topics: United States, Trade war, World Trade, Greater China, US election, US economy, US-China relation, North America

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