Trumpenomics would constrain the Covid-19 recovery
A second term for Donald Trump would likely constrain the economic recovery relative to a Joe Biden presidency, but the degree of constraint would depend on who controls Congress.
Our current “status quo” policy baseline assumes Trump wins the White House, while Republicans control the Senate and Democrats control the House. In our baseline, which features a short-term fiscal relief package, we expect real GDP to grow 3.7% in 2021.
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Our break-down of revenue and spending for the two Trump wins scenarios.
Our comparison of President Trump’s and nominee Biden’s fiscal agendas, and the expected GDP growth.
How a Republican sweep the elections, we would result in reduced outlays on transfers for health care, education, and social services.