We expect holiday sales to register a small advance this year, up only 0.6% y/y. While phase one of the recovery proved that fiscally supported...

The services sector partially snapped back in Q3, but the enduring health crisis will make the road to recovery long and uneven. Even after...

The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.6ppts in late October, a third successive drop to the lowest level in 10 weeks. A dangerous cocktail of surging...

Despite slowing US economic momentum, a worsening health situation, and rising election uncertainty, the policy outlook carries upside risks for...

If Joe Biden is elected, we look for reversals of President Donald Trump’s policies on immigration, environmental regulation and health care along...

A second term for Donald Trump would likely constrain the economic recovery relative to a Joe Biden presidency, but the degree of constraint would...

The pre-election uncertainty surrounding a fiscal stimulus package could represent a watershed moment for the US economy as fiscal stimulus is...

As we look ahead to the first presidential debate, our economic election models continue to see President Donald Trump losing his reelection bid.

...

Markets are pricing in greater volatility around the presidential election as a surge in mail-in votes raises the odds of a delay in declaring the...

Durable goods orders rose 0.4% in August, yet the 4th successive monthly gain was much slower than the 11.7% July advance. Core orders and...