In 2022, we expect the strength of global economic growth to be driven by demand-side developments, in stark contrast to the past two years when...

Recovery in both domestic and international travel is underway in the second half of 2021, despite some larger adverse impacts for the year to...

Bank of England MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe recently highlighted how the UK’s growing wealth will continue to put a damper on gilt interest rates....

Concerns have risen about financial market risks, centring around elevated asset valuations and high corporate debt. A lack of corporate distress...

In our recent extended panel assessment on EM FX, we found most currencies have yet to recover ‘fair value’ after the March 2020 overshooting...

Inventories – normally a strong predictor of the business cycle – are uncharacteristically low, even though global growth is at record highs. This...

There have been long, multi-year cycles in the US dollar over the last 50 years, often linked to divergent monetary policies or structural...

The transition to a greener economy through changes in government climate policy, technology, investment, and consumer preferences will fuel huge...

Despite Covid cases rising globally, upside risks to our already relatively optimistic baseline are material. The main risk stems from the...

Rising raw materials prices, supply-chain disruptions, and surging shipping costs are raising expenses for producers, boosting near-term global...