Q4 GDP data for Saudi Arabia showed a 3.8% y/y fall, taking the full-year 2020 outturn to -4.1%, broadly in line with our forecast. Compared with the 7.0% y/y fall in Q2 2020, the Q4 result is in line with the signs of recovery in the non-oil sector in H2 last year. The PMI shows steady expansion in early 2021 despite falling to 53.9 in February but, with the 1mb/d oil output cut extended into April, we have cut our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.9% last month. A stronger pick-up to 4.4% growth is seen in 2022 as the impact of higher oil prices feeds through.
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