Global | Q3 GDP nowcasts point to a slowing recovery

Machine learning-led GDP nowcasting points to a recovery in Q3, albeit with slowing momentum through the quarter. China might reach pre-crisis levels of growth while the other big five economies still have ground to make up.

What you will learn:

  • Some of the statistical data may be prone to potentially large revisions and diverging methodologies across countries make international comparisons difficult. 
  • Our nowcasting methodology can detect more nonlinear relationships in the data than the usual econometric methodology. 
  • Our nowcasts are also more optimistic than the consensus for Japan, the US, and UK, and closer to consensus for China and the eurozone.
  • Beware the noise in financial market, labour market data, and overarching international comparisons.

Topics: United States, China, Global, United Kingdom, Eurozone, Labour markets, Global economy, Coronavirus, Market Highlights, Japan

Q3 GDP nowcasts point to a slowing recovery - iPad