News on vaccine progress has offered some light at the end of the Covid tunnel, but the discovery that more transmissible variants have spread outside the UK and South Africa means the downside risks to our global baseline forecasts are rising once again.
Clear signs are already emerging that the UK and South African economies will be hit hard by tighter restrictions needed to contain the surge in Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations. We now expect that UK GDP will not rebound after a small fall in Q4, but will instead contract 4% in Q1 as lockdown 3.0 takes hold.
What you will learn:
How far the new variants have spread
Which economies are most at risk
How big an economic hit would a new wave of lockdowns inflict