We expect Latin America to return to low trend growth in 2022, as policy
support is withdrawn and the easy gains from the reopening fade. LatAm’s
recovery will continue to lag the rest of the world and remain uneven across
countries. A disorderly withdrawal of fiscal support, however, could tip economies back into recession or lead to social unrest. To ensure borrowing costs do not rise further and that fiscal credibility does not come under questioning, countries will need to start running primary budget surpluses.
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