North America | Key themes 2021: North America looks to a brighter future

Control over the virus will determine the economic outlook in 2021. While it’s been a long and tiresome year, a brighter future is within reach if we can control the present. For policymakers, this means addressing the virus and providing aid to the most vulnerable tranches of the economy. For businesses, it means planning with an attentive eye toward the health situation today and the outlook for stronger growth tomorrow.

United States Key Themes 2021

Here are our seven key themes for North America:

  • A health bridge to a post-Covid world – The current situation is very concerning, but a vaccine should guarantee a slowly improving outlook.
  • A tale of two economic perspectives – Private sector activity will likely experience a mini-boom in 2021, but not all areas will benefit equally.
  • A fiscal paradigm shift is underway – Greater public tolerance  toward larger budget deficits won’t be immune to political opposition.
  • The Fed and Bank of Canada policy frameworks will be tested – as inflation transitorily surpasses 2%, the Fed and Bank of Canada will be tested.
  • Winners and losers across regions and industries – K-shaped recoveries are likely in goods and services sectors, but growth dynamics will flip.
  • Markets high on adrenaline – Risks are biased toward upside economic surprises, with Treasury yields and equities continuing to move in lockstep.
  • Globalization won’t go into reverse – Biden will bring greater trade policy certainty as activity rebounds, but pure free trade won’t make a comeback.

 

Topics: United States, Video, Canada, Risk evaluation, Markets, Federal Reserve, Coronavirus, Industry, North America, Recovery

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