Our June forecasts contained a substantial upward revision to growth in 2021 and 2022. We now forecast growth of 5.3% in 2021, followed by 3.2% in 2022. In the near term, the change in the outlook has been driven by the better-than-expected Q1 GDP print, and the more supportive stance of fiscal policy presented in the May Budget.
Very accommodative policy settings are gaining traction and spurring private sector activity. In particular, we are forecasting a sharp rebound in dwelling and business investment, which will boost activity in the near term.
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