India’s new lockdown strategy, which is being led by states, seems to be working. The sustained decline in the daily coronavirus cases at a national level, alongside a fall in the effective reproduction rate, suggests that India’s coronavirus curve may be beginning to plateau again. But it’s too early to consider exiting lockdowns. Currently, most states have decreed tighter restrictions until the end of May. We think it is likely that partial, if not complete, lockdowns will be extended into Q3.
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