News of an effective potential vaccine is a significant boost in the fight against Coronavirus, but it doesn’t yet warrant an upgrade to our baseline forecast.
The complexities of distributing a comprehensive inoculation program, plus the ongoing need for policy support mean that we are unlikely to see the economic benefits much before the second half of 2021. This is in line with our current baseline assumptions.
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The global GDP forecast and the upside scenario against our current baseline.
How fiscal impulse to growth has been huge this year at more than 5ppts. But based on current plans, fiscal policy will drag by more than 3ppts next year.