The pre-election uncertainty surrounding a fiscal stimulus package could represent a watershed moment for the US economy as fiscal stimulus is expiring and employment is slowing.
Without faster job growth – unlikely at this stage of the recovery – or increased fiscal aid, households, businesses and state and local governments will be increasingly susceptible to a deterioration of the health situation.
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The paradox between how a lapse in unemployment benefits would constrain income and spending, and that the consumer spending rebound has been predominantly driven by low-income families.
How the total income could fall below its pre-Covid level just before the elections.
How the absence of additional fiscal aid could lead to economic scarring.