Global | Risk metrics reveal more optimism, more complacency
An array of metrics points to improved global prospects, based on our latest review of alternative gauges of economic risk. All suggest stronger – in some cases, much stronger – 2021 growth than they indicated two months ago.
What you will learn :
The improvement in business sentiment has been limited, however. Based on responses to our regular Global Risk Survey, businesses still expect a relatively moderate rebound this year.
With the exception of evidence from previous pandemics, all our other metrics point to a faster pace of recovery.
Greater optimism appears to be accompanied by greater complacency. We find that many other forecasters are attaching a small probability to material surprises to both growth and inflation.