Consumer spending took over as the driver of recovery in Q2. We expect similar gains in Q3, leaving spending 3% below pre-pandemic levels. However, the easy gains from reopening are now mostly exhausted and we expect the consumer recovery to slow over the winter. But although the balance of risk is shifting to the downside, we still foresee strong spending gains in 2022.
High-frequency data point to strong momentum in consumer spending. Tourism enjoyed a solid season, which is likely to extend into autumn. Mobility remains strong and social consumption activities saw a solid pick-up in recent months. Our Recovery Tracker shows consumer spending will remain robust in Q3.
What you will learn: