The next five weeks will be crucial in determining whether the UK and EU can achieve a free-trade agreement. We still estimate the chance of a deal being struck is 60% given the strong motivations for the UK to reach agreement.
Failure to agree a deal will mean UK exports to the EU are subject to tariffs and higher non-tariff barriers. Our modelling suggests this would hit UK growth prospects in both the short- and longer-term.
What you will learn:
How likely are the UK and the EU to reach a deal?
What will be the impact of a no-trade deal on the relationship between Great Britain and Northern Ireland?
How would a no-trade deal impact UK exports to the EU?