Andrew Goodwin

Recent Posts

Repeatedly hawkish comments from BoE Governor Bailey suggest that the MPC is preparing the ground for a rate rise. Consequently, we now forecast a...

The UK economy made more progress in August in returning to its pre-Covid size. But supply-side friction and pressure on spending power from...

Government support schemes have been hugely successful in mitigating the financial consequences of the pandemic to consumers. But at the same time...

Inflation in the UK is set to peak higher for longer than we previously expected. But structural factors plus the likelihood that supply problems...

Revisions in Q2’s national accounts showed the economy responding more strongly to exiting lockdown than initially thought. At the same time, the...

The minutes of September’s MPC meeting were more hawkish, leading markets to price in a rate hike early next year. But we think markets are...

Construction and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing and agriculture were the only UK sectors to suffer significant labour shortages in July,...

The latest money and credit data suggested caution on the part of consumers. Unsecured lending flatlined in July and households’ savings...

Input shortages were the key theme of this week’s business surveys. Manufacturers continue to struggle with global component shortages, while...

Retail sales fell sharply in July, but we don’t see this as a reason to turn bearish on the consumer outlook. The slide was partly due to one-off...