Alternate paths to post-pandemic recovery | Australia

Vaccine rollouts are either underway or imminent in several countries, but
global GDP growth will be constrained by social distancing measures in the
near term, before large-scale and permanent reductions in restrictions begin
around mid-2021. Using our Global Economic Model, we consider three
alternate recovery scenarios.

In this comprehensive 3 page report we explore the following themes and more:

  • The path beyond COVID-19 is now largely dependent on the rollout and effectiveness of national vaccine programs. Logistical hurdles remain while the UK and South African variants of the virus threaten increased restrictions. But a rapid easing of conditions could also dissipate permanent economic scarring.
  • Recent data confirm the economic recovery continues to run a little ahead of expectations, with retail sales, trade flows and the labour market all performing well.
  • Three alternative recovery scenarios which include a rapid upturn, if vaccine rollouts provide an economic upwind. Contrastingly we also cover a delayed recovery scenario, as well as global, new wave of coronavirus infections. 

Topics: Scenarios, Australia, Coronavirus, Macroeconomics

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