A chilly holiday season for consumers | U.S.

We expect holiday sales to register a small advance this year, up only 0.6% y/y. While phase one of the recovery proved that fiscally supported incomes can fuel potent spending on goods, we shouldn’t fall for alluring rearview-mirror economics.

Phase two of the recovery is significantly slower, with muted employment gains and reduced fiscal aid weighing on incomes. Plus, a worsening Covid outbreak is once again limiting activity across the country.

What you will learn:

  • Why our holiday sales outlook suggests cooling consumer spending momentum
  • The impact of COVID-19, household income and employment rates on retail 
  • Why strength in online sales won’t suffice to offset weakness in holiday shopping

Topics: United States, Consumer spending, Online retail, Retail, Coronavirus, US economy, employment, Recovery, Christmas

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