We expect holiday sales to register a small advance this year, up only 0.6% y/y. While phase one of the recovery proved that fiscally supported incomes can fuel potent spending on goods, we shouldn’t fall for alluring rearview-mirror economics.
Phase two of the recovery is significantly slower, with muted employment gains and reduced fiscal aid weighing on incomes. Plus, a worsening Covid outbreak is once again limiting activity across the country.
What you will learn:
Why our holiday sales outlook suggests cooling consumer spending momentum
The impact of COVID-19, household income and employment rates on retail
Why strength in online sales won’t suffice to offset weakness in holiday shopping