Our Recovery Tracker rose 1.1ppt for a second consecutive week, reaching 79.1 in the week ended Aug 14. Growth in four of the six dimensions points to relative resilience. But given the fiscal aid impasse, the unchanged demand tracker since the end of July and weakening employment gains are worrisome.
Five months into the coronavirus crisis, some sectors have made significant progress but are struggling to regain their pre-Covid luster. While the expiry of the federal top-up to jobless benefits hasn’t led to a sharp fallback in spending, the stalling recovery is an important risk at this stage in the recession. Further, the rebound could adopt a K-shape with those fortunate enough to be able to work remotely and benefit from stock market gains still spending, and those dependent on further fiscal aid experiencing severe income difficulties.