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Trump vs Clinton: Polarization and Uncertainty

Posted by Oxford Economics on Jul 20, 2017 7:14:21 AM

The economic impact of the US elections

With the US presidential elections less than two months away, our economists have taken a close look the economic policy put forward by the Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump campaigns and their macroeconomic impact over the coming years.

In this research briefing we describe how four key factors explain diverging economic trajectories under a Trump and Clinton presidency:

  • Fiscal
  • Trade
  • Immigration policy
  • Confidence/uncertainty.

The analysis was created using our internationally renowned Global Economic Model, which provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and scenario analysis. 

As an independent economic advisory firm, Oxford Economics has no political affiliation.

Download a  free summary report.  

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New: Exchange rate forecasts

Posted by Oxford Economics on Feb 27, 2017 10:25:00 AM

We are pleased to announce our new Exchange Rate Service. The Exchange Rate Service provides access to five-year forecasts of annual exchange rates for 150 economies against the United States dollar, and quarterly forecasts for the world’s largest 33 currencies against the dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound.

Clients receive a written report each quarter describing main drivers of change and the outlook under our baseline forecast and each of our five-year scenarios. In addition, we supply an Excel file that shows both the quarterly and annual results, updated once a month.

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Topics: Product development, Global economics, Exchange rate forecasts

World Economic Prospects Executive Summary: February 2017

Posted by Oxford Economics on Feb 23, 2017 11:12:51 AM

February 2017: A recovery in trade 

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 160 economists updates its baseline forecast for 200 countries using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind. Below is a summary of our analysis on the latest economic developments, and headline forecasts.

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Topics: Global Economic Model, World Economic Prospects, Global economics, Free Download

Top ten calls for 2017 — Trumpenomics leads the way

Posted by Oxford Economics on Jan 10, 2017 4:40:56 PM
Top ten calls for 2017 — Trumpenomics leads the way

Our top ten calls for 2017 are, not surprisingly, dominated by the impact of Donald Trump’s surprise election victory in November. The full effect of reflationary policies under the new Trump administration is unlikely to be seen in the real economy until 2018 with world GDP growth and trade growth remaining moderate next year. Nevertheless, we do expect US growth to firm in 2017 and US financial market developments – to some extent anticipating the likely fiscal policy and growth effects of Trump’s policies – will have a major impact on the global economic landscape. 

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Topics: Trump, Global economics, Forecasts

Global scenarios service — Trump towers over the global economy

Posted by Oxford Economics on Jan 10, 2017 4:34:47 PM

The global economic outlook has shifted markedly in the three months since our last report. While our baseline forecast has changed only modestly, upside risks to growth have increased significantly and we no longer judge risks to be skewed to the downside. As highlighted in the latest Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey, the greatest source of risk is the US policy stance once President-elect Trump takes office.

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Topics: Risk, Global economics, Scenarios

Unlocking the Growth Potential of Services Trade

Posted by Oxford Economics on Jan 10, 2017 4:24:50 PM

Breaking new ground in macro research, Oxford Economics has captured current and historical statistics on bilateral trade in services for 24 key trading nations to build a unique, comprehensive database. These previously elusive data give us unprecedented insight into the evolution of services trade. 

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Topics: Trade, Global economics

Global Cities 2030 | The largest 100 cities: a clear shift Eastwards

Posted by Oxford Economics on Jan 10, 2017 3:53:33 PM

The economic landscape is changing, with the world’s urban centre continuing to shift Eastwards. Aggregate GDP of Chinese cities covered in the report will overtake the largest cities in Europe and North America by 2017 and 2022 respectively. Nine additional Chinese cities will join the world’s top 100 ranked by real GDP in 2030, with 13 cities from North America and Europe dropping out. Despite this shift, the top five largest city economies in 2030 will remain unchanged from today.

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Topics: Cities

Brexit: Who could take London's place?

Posted by Oxford Economics on Jan 10, 2017 3:39:22 PM

In considering the risk that London may shed financial services jobs as a result of Brexit, we do need to consider whether any alternative EU city has the capacity to absorb the jobs that London loses.

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Topics: Brexit

Expansion of US metro service to cover 500 counties

Posted by Oxford Economics on Jan 10, 2017 3:25:16 PM

The North American Metro Service provides historical data, forecasts, and written analysis of all 50 states and Washington DC, and 89 Metropolitan Statistical Areas that make up the majority of US economic activity. We will shortly expand the coverage to include additional coverage of 500 counties to provide a more granular view of US economic prospects.

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Topics: Cities, Product development

The largest 100 cities: a clear shift Eastwards

Posted by Oxford Economics on Dec 7, 2016 4:43:31 PM

We expect significant changes in the world economic order over the next decade and a half. Not surprisingly, Chinese cities will be at the forefront of these changes. The aggregate GDP of China’s 150 largest cities is forecast to double from around US$10 trillion today to US$20 trillion in 2030 (measured in 2012 prices and exchange rates). This means that Chinese cities will account for almost half of the increase in global city GDP and will represent a third of total urban GDP by 2030. By contrast, the combined output of the 58 North American cities covered in our analysis will rise by US$4.0 trillion, followed by non-Chinese Asian cities (US$3.5 trillion) and then European cities (US$3.2 trillion). 

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Topics: Global Economic Model, Cities

Asian Cities & Regions Outlook December 2016

Posted by Oxford Economics on Dec 6, 2016 4:43:06 PM

Delhi is fastest emerging city, Brisbane fastest advanced 
Indian cities feature strongly amongst the fastest growing Asian cities in the period to 2020, with Ho Chi Minh City also standing out, and Chinese cities having to adapt to a more service sector reliant growth model. The advanced economy cities face challenges from their emerging rivals, with a marked contrast between Japan’s sclerotic cities and rivals such as Seoul and Singapore. 

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Topics: Asia, Cities

The Effect of a Trump Presidency on International Travel to the US

Posted by Oxford Economics on Nov 14, 2016 3:59:14 PM

The election of Donald Trump has introduced new uncertainty into the outlook for the US travel industry. While a Clinton presidency would have been broadly considered a continuation of existing policies, Trump ran a campaign calling for shifts in foreign, fiscal, trade, and immigration policies that have potentially significant implications for the global economy and travel. 

Oxford Economics has separately analyzed Trump’s proposals and assessed a range of risks to the US economy. The conclusion of this analysis is that the most likely scenario involves significantly watered-down positions that would produce only marginally slower economic growth in 2017 and 2018 relative to our pre-election baseline scenario.

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Topics: Trump, Travel

Oxford Economists Develop a New Global Impact Model

Posted by Oxford Economics on Nov 1, 2016 5:22:12 PM

Economic impact assessments provide a clear insight into how a firms operations and interactions with suppliers generates economic activity. They capture how supply chains spread through an economy, enabling us to quantify a firm’s footprint.

Yet typically they only consider a firm’s operations and spending in one country. For some companies this may be ideal: for instance if they have a single location and spend little with suppliers in other economies. But for globally integrated businesses, such analysis does not capture the impact on a local economy in its entirety.

Traditionally a firm’s operations and suppliers outside of the main country of analysis, as well as trade impact they have on an economy, have been beyond the capacity of standard impact models. Such activities are known as ‘leakage’ from the analysis. These limitations have meant conventional impact studies inevitably understate a global company’s national economic contribution, although they still quantify important effects.

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Topics: Economic impact

The Longevity Economy

Posted by Oxford Economics on Sep 28, 2016 3:42:30 PM

 By 2015, there were more than 1.6 billion people in the world who were part of the 50-plus cohort. By 2050, this number is projected to double to nearly 3.2 billion people. Throughout the world the growth of this age group is having a transformative impact, economically and socially. The US alone is home to 111 million in the 50-plus cohort; they represent a powerful force that is driving economic growth and value. This is what AARP has branded the Longevity Economy, representing the sum of all economic activity driven by the needs of Americans aged 50 and older, and includes both products and services they purchase directly and the further economic activity this spending generates. The difference it makes is substantial. In the first Longevity Economy report released in 2013 by AARP and Oxford Economics, the Longevity Economy fostered $7.1 trillion in annual economic activity. This figure has now been revised up to $7.6 trillion in the latest report. The outsized contribution reflects the changing demographics, wealth, and spending patterns of the 50-plus population as the lifespan increases and the Longevity Economy becomes more pervasive and central to economic and social policies.

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Topics: Economic impact

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