Forward Thinking

How closely linked is your disposable income to your overall wellness? Does sleep impact your quality of life? What about spending time outdoors or chatting with your neighbours? Our daily experiences and interactions impact our lives and wellness. But it’s not always so clear how to define and measure them.

In our latest research, we explore those questions and more, partnering with Sainsbury’s as we quantify, analyse, and track what it means to live well.

We asked more than 8,000 people to tell us how they’re living – from their relationships with partners, family and friends, to whether they own their own home, how secure they feel in their finances and jobs and much more. In the coming years, we will track how these factors change and impact our lives, creating the Sainsbury’s Living Well Index.

What will the highways of the world look like in five or 10 years’ time and what will this mean for the future of the automotive industry, not to mention the thousands of businesses in multiple industry sectors that supply them? For many, the hubbub in the media and among industry observers over electric vehicles drives an image in our imaginations of a world humming quietly to the sound of electric cars whizzing us happily to our destinations. It is a vision of more efficient journeys, clean air and a quieter environment.

A well-functioning, modern infrastructure is central to economic development and to quality of life. From the roads and railways needed to transport people and goods, to the power plants and communications networks that underpin economic and household activity, to the basic human need for clean water and sanitation, infrastructure matters to people and businesses everywhere.

The economic impact of the US elections

With the US presidential elections less than two months away, our economists have taken a close look the economic policy put forward by the Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump campaigns and their macroeconomic impact over the coming years.

In this research briefing we describe how four key factors explain diverging economic trajectories under a Trump and Clinton presidency:

• Fiscal
• Trade
• Immigration policy
• Confidence/uncertainty.

The analysis was created using our internationally renowned Global Economic Model, which provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and scenario analysis. 

As an independent economic advisory firm, Oxford Economics has no political affiliation.

We are pleased to announce our new Exchange Rate Service. The Exchange Rate Service provides access to five-year forecasts of annual exchange rates for 150 economies against the United States dollar, and quarterly forecasts for the world’s largest 33 currencies against the dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound.

Clients receive a written report each quarter describing main drivers of change and the outlook under our baseline forecast and each of our five-year scenarios. In addition, we supply an Excel file that shows both the quarterly and annual results, updated once a month.

February 2017: A recovery in trade 

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 160 economists updates its baseline forecast for 200 countries using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind. Below is a summary of our analysis on the latest economic developments, and headline forecasts.

Top ten calls for 2017 — Trumpenomics leads the way

Our top ten calls for 2017 are, not surprisingly, dominated by the impact of Donald Trump’s surprise election victory in November. The full effect of reflationary policies under the new Trump administration is unlikely to be seen in the real economy until 2018 with world GDP growth and trade growth remaining moderate next year. Nevertheless, we do expect US growth to firm in 2017 and US financial market developments – to some extent anticipating the likely fiscal policy and growth effects of Trump’s policies – will have a major impact on the global economic landscape. 

The global economic outlook has shifted markedly in the three months since our last report. While our baseline forecast has changed only modestly, upside risks to growth have increased significantly and we no longer judge risks to be skewed to the downside. As highlighted in the latest Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey, the greatest source of risk is the US policy stance once President-elect Trump takes office.

The economic landscape is changing, with the world’s urban centre continuing to shift Eastwards. Aggregate GDP of Chinese cities covered in the report will overtake the largest cities in Europe and North America by 2017 and 2022 respectively. Nine additional Chinese cities will join the world’s top 100 ranked by real GDP in 2030, with 13 cities from North America and Europe dropping out. Despite this shift, the top five largest city economies in 2030 will remain unchanged from today.

In considering the risk that London may shed financial services jobs as a result of Brexit, we do need to consider whether any alternative EU city has the capacity to absorb the jobs that London loses.

The North American Metro Service provides historical data, forecasts, and written analysis of all 50 states and Washington DC, and 89 Metropolitan Statistical Areas that make up the majority of US economic activity. We will shortly expand the coverage to include additional coverage of 500 counties to provide a more granular view of US economic prospects.

We expect significant changes in the world economic order over the next decade and a half. Not surprisingly, Chinese cities will be at the forefront of these changes. The aggregate GDP of China’s 150 largest cities is forecast to double from around US$10 trillion today to US$20 trillion in 2030 (measured in 2012 prices and exchange rates). This means that Chinese cities will account for almost half of the increase in global city GDP and will represent a third of total urban GDP by 2030. By contrast, the combined output of the 58 North American cities covered in our analysis will rise by US$4.0 trillion, followed by non-Chinese Asian cities (US$3.5 trillion) and then European cities (US$3.2 trillion). 

Delhi is fastest emerging city, Brisbane fastest advanced 
Indian cities feature strongly amongst the fastest growing Asian cities in the period to 2020, with Ho Chi Minh City also standing out, and Chinese cities having to adapt to a more service sector reliant growth model. The advanced economy cities face challenges from their emerging rivals, with a marked contrast between Japan’s sclerotic cities and rivals such as Seoul and Singapore. 

The election of Donald Trump has introduced new uncertainty into the outlook for the US travel industry. While a Clinton presidency would have been broadly considered a continuation of existing policies, Trump ran a campaign calling for shifts in foreign, fiscal, trade, and immigration policies that have potentially significant implications for the global economy and travel. 

Oxford Economics has separately analyzed Trump’s proposals and assessed a range of risks to the US economy. The conclusion of this analysis is that the most likely scenario involves significantly watered-down positions that would produce only marginally slower economic growth in 2017 and 2018 relative to our pre-election baseline scenario.