Despite slowing US economic momentum, a worsening health situation, and recent election uncertainty, the policy outlook carries upside risks for...
Innes McFee
Recent Posts
Chart of the week: Eurozone: OE real neutral rate estimates
Posted by Innes McFee on Oct 19, 2020 2:31:24 PM
According to our new overlapping generations model, the Eurozone is stuck in secular stagnation leaving the ECB unable to hit the 2% inflation...
Chart of the week: What the next decade of slower globalization will bring
Posted by Innes McFee on Sep 4, 2020 3:33:27 PM
We spelt out our view on the future of globalisation this week. We don’t expect globalization to go into reverse, but we do think it will continue...
Chart of the week: US: Total trade under different scenarios
Posted by Innes McFee on Aug 14, 2020 7:29:32 PM
Trade is already one of the hardest-hit US sectors in the coronavirus crisis and faces major risks depending on the path of the pandemic in our...
Chart of the week: Why ending the easing cycle in Brazil now would be a mistake
Posted by Innes McFee on Aug 7, 2020 3:05:46 PM
This week the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) lowered the Selic rate to 2.00%. Although our baseline scenario is for further rate cuts in the coming...
Chart of the week: US coronavirus reproduction rates
Posted by Innes McFee on Jul 31, 2020 10:16:07 AM
Latest data reveal a shifting US health picture. Coronavirus reproduction rates slowed in the last week after the pause or rollback of state and...
Chart of the week: Our forecast for world trade growth
Posted by Innes McFee on Jul 24, 2020 1:53:22 PM
Our baseline forecast looks for world trade to grow by just 2.6% per year from 2020-2030, with trade volumes in 2030 around 5% lower than we...
Oxford Economics featured on Financial Times: The safe-asset shortage after Covid-19
Posted by Innes McFee on Jun 29, 2020 12:17:58 PM
We are pleased to see that Gavyn Davies recently mentioned Oxford Economics in his excellent opinion article 'The safe-asset shortage after...